For a company like FB that previously commanded an
earnings multiple of nearly 30, a weaker earnings trend than anticipated
can wreak havoc, and this is exactly what we've seen, with FB
correcting nearly 50% from its highs in less than six months. The good
news is that this has left the stock quite reasonably valued, sitting at
less than 14x FY2023 earnings estimates. This is a very reasonable
multiple for a stock that's expected to see a new high in annual EPS in
FY2023 and FY2024, after a blip in FY2022 ($12.55 vs. $13.77).
In
fact, FB's historical earnings multiple sits closer to 30 over the past
decade. Even if we adjust for the slower growth rate going forward and
assign a fair earnings multiple of 18, this still points to a fair value
of more than $266.00 per share. This translates to more than 25% upside
from current levels, suggesting that the stock finally offers some
value to investors. Let's look at the technical picture below:
(Source: TC2000.com)
Moving
over to Meta's technical picture, we can see that the stock has plunged
by nearly 50% from its highs and has found itself hovering just above a
key support level at $190.00. Meanwhile, there is no strong resistance
for the stock until $317.00, given that no strong resistance levels have
been built on the way down, due to the torrid pace of the correction.
This provides investors with a more than 10 to 1 reward/risk ratio from a
technical standpoint from the $200.00 level.
Obviously,
this attractive reward/risk ratio does not have to translate into
higher prices, but it certainly has created a relatively low-risk buying
opportunity for investors. Hence, for investors anxious to add exposure
to FB to their portfolios, I would view any pullbacks below $200.00 as
an attractive point to start an initial position in the stock.
While
we have not seen any confirmation of capitulation from a sentiment
standpoint, the market has become quite oversold short-term and is
nearly as oversold as it was in March 2020. This technical setup favors
being open-minded to a short-term bottom and the potential for a 10%
plus rally in the QQQ from the $320.00 level. With FB trading at less
than 14x FY2023 earnings estimated offer low-risk entries below
$200.00 respectively, for an initial position.
Disclosure: We have 100 units positions in stock mentioned but may start a new position in META in the next 24 hours.
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